Expectations Matter!

The primary lesson from the Predictably Irrational chapter is that pre-conceived expectations can oftentimes create self-fulfilling prophecies. In other words, our experiences confirm ideas that we already believe or want to believe. It is these individual self-fulfilling prophecies that explain why people can observe the exact same events and make completely divergent, conflicting conclusions. Recognizing that these influential biases will always exist can not only help us better gain valuable insights from our consumers, but also—and perhaps more importantly—help us design effective research to help us gain these insights. Besides realizing that consumers are deeply influenced by their beliefs and personal experiences, we must realize that our own beliefs and personal experiences affect our interpretations of these consumers’ responses. We are in danger of projecting our own judgments as those of our consumers. To minimize this risk, researchers should constantly question stereotypes and generally-accepted industry ideas. For instance, when I was working at Procter and Gamble on the Downy brand, the marketing team kept promoting Downy’s superiority as its key message…because consumers always want the best product, right? For months, these marketing managers had inadvertently used consumer feedback to reinforce the ideas they had always believed. It turns out that Downy’s new value consumer segment did not want to pay more for the best, so reinforcing the brand’s superiority was a turnoff.
The main example that Ariely uses to illustrate the immense power of expectation involves beer laced with Balsamic vinegar. He and his colleagues offered samples of two different kinds of beer to hundreds of MIT students at a local pub: 1) standard commercial beer (e.g. Budweiser, Sam Adams) and 2) Budweiser with balsamic vinegar. The students were to try the two beers and express a preference for the beer they liked better. Sometimes the researchers revealed the “secret ingredient” in the second choice before the students sampled the beers, and other times, the students were kept in the dark. For the most part, students who didn’t know about the Balsamic vinegar chose beer number two while those who knew about the vinegar upfront chose the first beer, as they were pre-disposed to dislike a beverage with such an unconventional and seemingly unfitting ingredient.
To test whether or not the timing of the revealed information affected the respondent’s reaction, the researchers re-conducted the beer experiment, this time revealing the secret ingredient after the students had sampled the beers. This time, the students who were told of the vinegar afterwards liked the second beer just as much as those who were never aware of the secret ingredient. The reason for this different reaction can be attributed to the fact that knowing about the vinegar before trying the beer already began shaping the students’ perception of the beer’s taste while getting the information later had less of an impact because the students had already formed an opinion. The important takeaway from Ariely’s beer experiment is that expectations can profoundly impact a person’s—and more specifically, a consumer’s—perception of a product and ultimately their trial and repeat of that product.
The Pepsi/Coke challenge Ariely offers makes complete sense in hindsight. As a kid, my cousins and I re-enacted the famous commercials and conducted Pepsi/Coke challenges on each other. I always insisted that I would choose Coke, despite the fact that the blind-tested participants on TV chose Pepsi. However, to my dismay, I did choose Pepsi! The reason why I so adamantly wanted to choose Coke was completely irrational, especially at that age—I just liked the brand…which, I reasoned, should make the beverage taste better.
In my high school statistics class, my partner and I conducted a similar experiment. Instead of two brand names, however, we tested Cocoa Puffs against the store brand Cocoa Puff copycat. (See, I don’t even know what to call the product without using the brand name!) Surprisingly, the majority of our respondents preferred the store brand cereal. When we asked them which one they thought they had chosen, most of them assumed it was the true Cocoa Puffs. And who could blame them? The fun Cocoa Puffs package with the inviting trademark bird on the front looks way more legitimate than the sheen-less competitor, thereby increasing consumers’ (in this case, my classmates’) expectations for the product’s taste. While this experiment was meant to teach us about statistical significance (considering that it was conducted within the context of a statistics class), what I vividly remember taking away from this experience was that expectations matter! And packaging is only one technique through which marketers strategically enhance consumer expectations and, ultimately, experiences.

10 Nice-to-Know's to Delight Me!

1) I hate texting. I am old-fashioned and miss the good old days when people actually visited their friends face-to-face or at least picked up the phone to call now and then. Technology has made relationships feel a lot like fast food and microwavable dinners: not completely fulfilling but “gets the job done.”

2) I’m uncomfortable with making online purchases. I would much rather swing by a physical store and either try on the garment (if it’s clothes I’m buying) or rent the movie (when I impulsively feel like watching one). While Blockbuster has been suffering considerably with the advent of online video renting companies such as Netflix, I still appreciate the fact that they have brick and mortar locations. At least we’re given a choice.

3) Splenda is a big turnoff for me. I can always tell when my beverage has been contaminated with fake sugar. I figure that if I’m going to eat/drink something less than super healthy, I’ll spring for the real thing and actually enjoy it. Artificial sweetener feels insincere—Coke should always be original.

4) I’m a value consumer. I’m selective about which products I purchase premium and will only spend the extra dollars on items that make a difference in my life. Therefore, splurging on Tide when I don’t normally have heavy-duty clothing stains is wasteful while paying more for shampoo is worth it because it makes my hair softer and shinier. Brands like Bounty and Charmin seem to have caught on to this persona trait, leading to the launch of their less expensive “Basic” line-ups.

5) I love finding out about effective unconventional uses for products. Hair conditioner to shave your legs. Hand lotion to remove make-up. Baby powder to get out stains. Bengay to alleviate headaches. Besides the fact that these quirky functions make me feel smug, like I’m a savvy consumer—they also increase the value equation, an instant 2 for 1.

6) I hate using can-openers. They are clunky and awkward—that’s why I love user-friendly cans with little metal tabs attached or packaging innovations such as those microwavable Campbell’s soup bowls.

7) I’m not loyal to many brands, but if a brand is there for me in dire times, I’m its number one consumer. Motrin is a great example. I’ve tried other pain relievers for some of my worst headaches, and so far, Motrin has worked the fastest and lasted the longest. Now, I never go anywhere without a bottle in my purse, just in case.

8) Negative experiences stay with me much longer than positive ones. I may seem zealous about promoting a product that has worked really well, but I’m even more adamant about discouraging my friends and family from buying brands that have disappointed me and services where the representatives have been rude or unhelpful.

9) I purchase functional items and render them useless. Right now, I have on my bookshelf two small unused Italian coffeemakers (one silver, the other baby blue) because they’re quirky, and I believe they add aesthetic value to my living space. Similarly, there’s a bright green fondue set circa 1970’s perched on my kitchen counter—as a decoration, of course.

10) Technology intimidates me. So when I hear about a hot new innovation, I don’t get nearly as excited as my peers because I’m apprehensive that the product will be complicated to use and “more than I need.” For example, I wasn’t too impressed with the Iphone, despite all of its many groundbreaking applications. However, (going back to point #7) when my friend’s Iphone was able to guide us to our destination when we were late and lost, I developed a newfound fondness for what I before deemed as an

over-designed phone.

just checking :)